The Future of Terrorism by Walter Laqueur

Author:Walter Laqueur
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: St. Martin's Press

10

THE BATTLEFIELDS OF THE FUTURE

The battlefields of the future will likely continue being the same as the battlefields of today. Structurally, this makes sense. The countries experiencing the worst spates of terrorism tend to be poor and have a long history of political inequality and repression, which makes them ripe for conflict. Combined with a surplus of tools for war, such as small arms and technically capacitated fighters, and radical entrepreneurs with the necessary organizational skills to mobilize populations, there is political space for this type of violence to continue.

So what are the main battlefields of today? Aside from Iraq and Syria, they are Libya, Yemen, and Afghanistan. As discussed elsewhere in this book, terrorism affects all parts of the globe, but these countries are unique in that they are both weak and geographically positioned to enable truly transnational revolutionary movements to arise and reshape borders. Moreover, given their proximity to key trading ports, influential countries, and natural resources, their continued instability might have profound global effects both politically and economically. However, much like the decentralized character of the global jihadist movement, violence in each of these places has a regional profile even in spite of the transnational rhetoric deployed by the various organizations involved in the fighting. All that being said, much like Iraq and Syria, the key feature that unites them is the fact that they all have weak governments that are easily targeted by nonstate actors promoting a utopian ideology that provides simple solutions for complex problems. This facilitates efforts to recruit and to receive funding from sources abroad.

In addition, there is no single strategic approach that defines these conflicts. Terrorism is used opportunistically by the various groups to delegitimize the local government and to serve as propaganda and as an effective tactic for defeating the opposition. The group plays to either the regional audience, changing up the levels of violence, prioritizing either the winning of hearts and minds or attacking civilian and military targets, and emphasizing different political programs that allow radical groups to hold territory and claim sovereignty. Combined with the slow-motion collapse of Islamic State since 2015, different jihadist organizations are adapting their propaganda to poach fighters and to draw donations from across the world.

Finally, what is interesting about these countries is that all have multiple nonstate actors, not all of them Islamic in character, competing against one another and against the local government. This means that terrorism is only one dimension of these conflicts and that other structural features are at play. Yet surprisingly, not one of these has managed the revolutionary changes accomplished by Islamic State.

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